Three polls today. Tequila, Heineken, no time to mess around. Let’s dive in!
The CAQ Isn’t Really “Slipping,” but It Makes for a Good Headline
Léger had recently settled into a habit of releasing its polls on Tuesdays. Then Pallas scooped it with the first poll of the week, so Léger moved its release up to Monday this time. Synopsis jumped on the bandwagon, leaving us to start the week with three polls based on similar samples, conducted at the same time, and all telling the same story.
Source: Qc125.com
The Journal de Montréal, which always goes the extra mile to sell a story, ran a headline saying that the CAQ “slipped in third place”.
Just one problem: it isn’t true.
Even if we look only at Léger, the CAQ is at 22% and the QLP at 24%. With a margin of error of about three percentage points, the CAQ could be in third place, but it could just as easily be in second.
Average the three polls, and you get 23.66% for the CAQ and 23.66% for the QLP. Same difference.
And if you look for a trend since late August, you won’t really find one.
Source: Qc125.com
And the Award for Worst Poll Graphic Goes to…
I’ve mentioned the Journal de Montréal’s odd takes on polling data a few times now. It seems genuinely determined not to let the CAQ climb too much, even when the numbers are fairly inconclusive.
Fine. The pollster can say whatever he likes. It doesn’t change the numbers.
Last week, I pointed out a few peculiarities in the graphic showing the results of that day’s Léger poll.
Among other things, Christine Fréchette looked a little discouraged, Charles Milliard had the sun in his eyes (which rarely makes for a good photo), and poor Ruba Ghazal appeared to be suffering from cranial atrophy.
See for yourself:
At least the column heights were proportional to the numbers.
Here is what the Journal came up with today, based on essentially the same polling numbers.
Why does PSPP look like André the Giant when he is only six points ahead?
Shall we play spot the seven eight ten twelve errors?
The PQ’s column is more than twice as tall as the QLP’s and three times as tall as the CAQ’s, despite leads of just six and eight points, respectively;
The two-point gap between the QLP and the CAQ looks larger than the four-point gap between the CAQ and the QCP;
Meanwhile, the seven-point gap between the QCP and QS looks smaller than the six-point Everest separating the PQ from the QLP;
Christine Fréchette is smiling, but Charles Milliard is in the shade (could we get some neutral lighting, please?), and Ruba Ghazal has shrunk again;
The PQ logo dwarfs all the others, while the QLP and QS logos have been reduced to the point of being barely visible because the full party names were left inside the circles (that was also true last week);
The logos are not vertically aligned.
What the hell is this?
How does the Journal de Montréal make its charts? Is somebody measuring the column heights with an axe?
I took advanced math in CEGEP, and I have no idea what number base lets you multiply 21 by three and get 29.
Anyway, I remade the chart.
Do we agree that it doesn’t send quite the same message?
I also made the base black so the eye could properly read the proportions of the columns. (Yes, I’m a little anal-retentive about this sort of thing.)
I’ve worked in the newsrooms of three daily newspapers. I’ve seen preferences at work; journalists are like everyone else. But I’ve rarely seen outright bias. It can creep into the choice of a headline or photo, or even an angle or source. Sometimes it is deliberate. Most of the time, it isn’t.
It is hard to escape your preferences completely. Journalists are human (so am I!).
But I have to admit, I’m having a hard time explaining this one. I prefer to believe that someone laid it on too thick and got carried away.
Funny thing: a few minutes after I posted my corrected chart on Monday morning, a new version appeared on the Journal’s website.
Before on the left. After on the right.
I won’t claim credit because others pointed it out too. More than anything, it shows that someone at the Journal de Montréal saw the problem.
Éric Duhaime Prefers Immigrants from “Democratic” Countries
The QCP leader wants to change Quebec’s immigration criteria to favour newcomers who “share at least some of our values.” Country of origin would be taken into account, with points awarded “based on respect for democracy and women’s rights,” just as they are for proficiency in French. The treatment of sexual minorities would also factor in.
In short, he is playing the same game as the CAQ and the PQ.
The QCP is also calling asylum seekers’ free access to public schools into question and wants to cut their social assistance by 25%. Because apparently $845 a month is the Klondike.
(I wonder whether Mr. Duhaime really thinks it will help us if asylum seekers’ children cannot attend school because their parents cannot afford it.)
When asked for examples of undemocratic countries whose citizens Quebec should be wary of, Mr. Duhaime refused to name a single one.
You can see why.
First, because any answer could be deeply insulting to Quebecers who are themselves immigrants or the children of immigrants, many of whom came here to escape war or totalitarian regimes, from Kim Thúy to Dany Laferrière.
Second, because some of Mr. Duhaime’s own candidates come from places that are not exactly bastions of democracy, such as Haiti or Algeria. Did they infiltrate Quebec to corrupt our values? Should we test them, just to make sure?
And while we’re at it, what about Ivan Demidov? Russia does not care much for democratic rights, and things are even worse if you belong to a cultural or sexual minority. Demidov does not speak French either. Do we trade him before our values start going off the rails?
Third, excluding people based on their origin would also violate Quebec’s international obligations under the Geneva Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. But the QCP does not give a damn about that. Neither does the CAQ. Nor, more recently, the PQ.
Yet excluding people based on where they come from now passes for an almost reasonable position, as though being an immigrant were inherently threatening.
One last question for Éric Duhaime: would he be game to give his old-stock supporters the same Quebec values test, on gender equality and minority rights? We might be in for a few surprises.
The (Conservative) False Statement of the Day
One last question for Éric Duhaime: would he be game to put his pure laine supporters through the same Quebec values test on gender equality and minority rights? We might be in for a few surprises.
Really?
I have news for Mr. Duhaime. Asylum claims are plummeting.
This was published less than two months ago.
In short, the number of asylum seekers in Quebec during the first five months of the year fell from 28,000 in 2024 to 16,000 in 2025, and then to 6,800 in 2026.
And here is the overall picture since 2017.
That “steady rise since 2017” has actually been a steady decline since 2023.
We are back to pre-Roxham levels, back when basic human decency was still considered normal.
This is what populism looks like. Éric Duhaime would probably say it doesn’t matter, because it isn’t the facts that count, but the message itself. And in the current climate, he would be absolutely right.
Speaking of populism, want to see what it looks like when a party turns its back on its own principles?
The PQ Reverses Course on Drinking and Driving
In February 2024, the QLP introduced a motion calling on Quebec to enter the 21st century catch up with every other Canadian province and virtually every Western country by imposing administrative penalties (fines and/or licence suspensions) on drivers with a blood alcohol level above 0.05.
Quebec is an outlier in the West, and even across the developed world. And, yes, lowering the threshold from 0.08 to 0.05 saves lives. I explain why here.
When your limit is twice Saskatchewan’s, something is wrong. Anyway, the CAQ, which has never missed an opportunity to base policy on evidence, voted against lowering it. Every other party voted in favour.
Here, incidentally, is what PQ MNA Pascal Bérubé said in a media scrum to justify his support for the Liberal proposal:
“Someone who gets behind the wheel while unfit to drive is just as dangerous in Matane as in a major city.”
When a reporter asked him whether there was greater tolerance for drinking and driving in the regions, here is what he said:
“You know, there are all kinds of stereotypes about the regions. And for 17 years, I’ve been working to combat them.”
Here is what Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said in October 2024, when the CAQ refused to study the 0.05 threshold:
“[The government] does not want to have to face experts or the science. It wants to put a lid on this issue.”
The scientific evidence is extensive. Experts and virtually every organization with any legitimate standing on the issue support lowering the threshold to 0.05. (I am not counting bar or restaurant associations.) Even the SAAQ, a government agency, supports the change.
More importantly, at the time, there were still political points to be scored by making the CAQ look bad.
Then, on Monday, parents whose daughter was killed by an impaired driver asked the parties to commit to revisiting the legal limit.
The CAQ Team Christine Fréchette, true to form, refused to take a stand.
The QCP, even truer to form, explained that such a measure “would unfairly penalize many citizens and business owners.” It is baloney, but at least it is consistent baloney, in keeping with the rest of the party’s fact-free arguments (see immigration above, among other things).
The QLP and QS stood by their previous positions.
The PQ looked at the polls, calculated how many votes it needed in the regions and the Quebec City area, and decided that “it is not part of our platform at this time.”
QLP Communications
Where’s Waldo? Charles finally appeared on the side of his party’s bus on Sunday, 18 days into the campaign.
Photo from Le Devoir.
Here is what it looked like before, complete with giant kindergarten drawings.
Photo from Radio-Canada’s website.
“I heard Quebecers say they wanted to see more of me,” Mr. Milliard said.
Junior stuff, as I wrote here.
The Campaign, as Seen from the Rest of Canada: Smile, Paul, Smile!
“Paul is Paul. I’ve already told him to laugh from time to time.”
A Parti Québécois veteran, quoted in the National Post.
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My name is Patrick Déry. I’m a French-speaking Québécois writing for a living, and trying something different here. If you enjoyed reading this text, you can support me by buying me a coffee. You can also subscribe to this media (free or paid, your choice).